2023: Fresh Poll Puts Obi Ahead of Atiku, Tinubu

A new poll conducted by Market Trends International (MTI) on all presidential candidates in the 2023 election has placed Peter Obi, Labour Party (LP) candidate, ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress (APC) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

MTI, a market research organisation, said it has been operating in Nigeria and other African countries for over 30 years. The agency is also skilled in both qualitative and quantitative studies.

Executive Director, MTI, Victor Ozinegbe Ebhomenye, said 44 per cent of the respondents indicated that they would likely vote Obi, the former governor of Anambra State in the 2023 presidential election.

“This may have come as a surprise to Nigerians because the Labour Party and Obi had no presence in Nigerian presidential scene as at December 2021,” Ebhomenye said.

He said the survey, conducted between November 9 and 29, 2022, indicated that Tinubu had 19 per cent respondents, Atiku had 16 respondents; Kwankwaso had 14 per cent respondents, Omoyele Sowore had zero per cent, others had five per cent, while those that refused and undecided had one per cent each.

Ebhomenye said: “Obi has picked up pace in the race since he declared interest to run with the Labour Party as the party’s presidential candidate at its national convention and presidential primary in Asaba, the capital of Delta State, on Monday, May 30 after other aspirants, like former presidential adviser, Pat Utomi; Faduri Joseph and Olubusola Emmanuel-Tella, stepped down.

“With Obi’s emergence, the party received boosts to achieve lasting alliance talks with NNPP (this alliance is said to have collapsed at the moment; Zenith Labour Party; Allied Peoples Movement; National Rescue Movement; Peoples Redemption Party, and African Democratic Congress, among others before the February 2023 presidential race.”

He said the proposed alliance had halted the APC and PDP from dominating the upcoming elections, adding that the PDP was initially seen as the most popular party to win the 2023 presidential election as at December 2021, with 52 per cent of respondents.

“When asked whom they will vote for, 28 per cent of respondents leaned towards voting for the PDP. However, findings show that 45 per cent of respondents were undecided and did not know which party they would vote for as at December 2021,” MTI further said.

According to the agency, ever since the loss of the party’s presidential ticket in May 2022 and being overlooked as the running mate of the flag-bearer, Atiku, Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike; and four other PDP governors (popularly known as the G5 Governors) have constituted themselves into an opposition within the PDP.

“It is believed these G5 Governors- Wike, Seyi Makinde; Samuel Ortom; Okezie Ikpeazu; and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi- discreetly withdrew their support for Atiku and this could be one factor to explain the drastic fall in support for the PDP. This has also contributed to Tinubu and Obi gaining more grounds in the upcoming presidential election race.

“Furthermore, when asked to advise the incoming president on challenges to tackle immediately he assumes office, Nigerians advised the incoming president to make insecurity (46 per cent), collapsed economy (20 per cent), and unemployment (18 per cent) his top priority, this order tallies with the previous survey results,

“Insecurity in Nigeria is a recurring phenomenon that threatens our well-being. The South-West is plagued by a surge in cyber crime, armed robbery, kidnapping, domestic crime, extra-judicial killings, herder-farmer conflicts, ritual killings and banditry.

“The South East is a haven for commercial crime, secessionist agitation, kidnapping, herder-farmer clashes, attacks by gunmen and banditry.

“The South south remains threatened by militancy, kidnapping and environmental agitation. The North East has been subject to a humanitarian crisis lasting over a decade, caused by the Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State in the West Africa Province.

“Meanwhile, the North West is enmeshed in illegal mining, ethno-religious killings, and banditry,” MTI said.

Source: Diplomatic Diary