Clarity begins to shine through in Irish election weekend

The most obvious route to a coalition looks to be a combination of the centre right parties who have dominated Irish governments for a century, plus left wing partners.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael grew more optimistic as the counting continued late into Saturday evening.

Following the exit poll, Sinn Féin had been hopeful that it would repeat its 2020 performance of winning the most first preference votes – and maybe secure the highest number of seats for the first time.

Neither of those feats are out of the question but party figures seemed to be less keen to play up their chances as the declarations stacked up.

Some analysts are suggesting that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could win more than 80 seats between them, putting them close to the finish line of 88 needed for an overall majority.

Coalition talks

Of those groups, it appears that Labour and the Social Democrats are in line to make gains.

However, the Green Party – which was the third member of the last government – is facing the possibility of losing all its seats.

Sinn Féin sources have suggested that the potential wipeout of another junior coalition partner could dissuade left wing parties from going into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael again.

But it is unlikely that enough left-of-centre politicians will be elected to form an alliance which would produce a workable majority.

'Significant role to play'

Outgoing Taoiseach (prime minister) Simon Harris, of Fine Gael, has said he expects his party would have a significant role to play in coalition talks.

Fianna Fáil leader Michéal Martin has indicated he believes there is a pathway to government.

However, all parties acknowledge that the margins in the later stages of the counting process can be very small – and that means there is always some uncertainty until the final results are confirmed.

If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael do return to power, it will mean that Ireland has bucked the trend of the vast majority of elections worldwide this year – by maintaining the status quo.

There is another story which could become one of the most prominent of this election.

Gerard Hutch is in the running to become a member of parliament.

Hutch was cleared of murdering a man during a boxing weigh-in at a Dublin hotel in 2016 but a judge described him as the patriarchal figurehead of a criminal organisation and said he engaged in serious criminal conduct.

Earlier this month, he was released on bail from custody in Spain, where he had been arrested as part of an investigation into money laundering by the Hutch Organised Crime Group.

The independent candidate is well in contention for a seat in Dublin.

-BBC