European Green Deal faces bumpy ride

Spanish socialist Teresa Ribera is the country’s top pick to get a key job at the European Commission and replace Josep Borrell who headed the bloc's foreign policy office.

Ribera, however, has set her sigths on a different portfolio, one even more important and controversial in European Union politics.

Reportedly, she is keen on leading the 27-member bloc into a greener future as EU Vice President, who is also in charge of in charge of the so-called European Green Deal — a set of policy initiatives initiated the EU Commission with the aim of making the EU climate neutral by 2050.

Minister for the Ecological -transition of Spain, Ribera is widely respected in the international environment-activist community. In a post on social media platform X recently, she said she was honored to head Spain’s list of candidates for the EU Commission and wanted a more "just and green" Europe.

Celia Nyssens-James, policy manager for agriculture and food systems at the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) thinks think she "deserves" to be charged with implementing the Green Deal. "What’s key for us is to have someone in the Commission who is committed to the Green Deal, like Frans Timmermans," the member of the Brussels-based nongovernment told DW, referring to Dutch politician Timmermanns who was seen as instrumental in driving the EU's pro-climate agenda.

"But we have one big question and that is whether she will be tough enough on the farming industry. Spain has a big one and the farmers lobby there is very strong, too," Nyssens-James added.


Green Deal under fire

In the run-up to the European Parliament elections in June this year, farmers in several member states blocked streets and dumped manure in front of government offices in protest of what they regard as failed environmental policy that was burdening EU farmers. The protests forced EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to soften her stance on agricultural-related carbon emissions and even reverse a key regulation on slashing the use of pesticides.

But dealing with farmers will be just one of the many daunting challenges that Ribera is likely to face if she indeed gets to lead the EU's green-transition team.

Carlo Fidanza, from the Brothers of Italy party, says that the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in parliament aims to "renegotiate" the most important parts of the Green Deal, "starting with the ban of conventional fuel and diesel engines by 2035."

"We need less ideology and more pragmatism, keeping together the environmental sustainability with the competitiveness of our businesses," he told DW.

Apart from the traditionally euroskeptic far-right Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), more and more center-right MEPs, who make up the largest parliamentary group, are also gearing up to oppose key provisions in the Green Deal

Green activists are now fearing that the center-right European People's Party (EPP), which is the most influential group in parliament, may also come under pressure to reverse green policies.

Anna Cavazzini, a German politician with the Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance in the EU, told DW that there were concerns over the EPP "backsliding" on their assurances to the Green Deal.

The Greens are not ready to discuss any reversals on any of the legislation already passed, she said, but EPP chief Manfred Weber has declared he will push for rolling back the EU ban on the use of combustion engines planned for 2035.

So far, the EPP is supporting the Green Deal objectives, but some members don't agree with all aspect of the legislation. Their main concern is how to garner enough green-transition funding and mitigate the policy's impact on vulnerable communities at the same time.

EU struggles with social cost of green transition

The European Environment Agency has estimated that implementing the Green Deal requires  investment to the tune of €520 billion ($568 billion) per year from 2021-2030.

Global consultancy firm McKinsey rather sees required investment of €6 trillion per year to reach carbon neutrality by 2045 of which "€5 trillion are replacement investments."

Germany's state-owned investment and development bank, KfW, meanwhile has put the price tag for Green Deal investments at €72 billion per year, meaning a total of just about €1.5 trillion until 2045.

As the EU is determined to push ahead with its green transformation, experts are criticizing that the focus has been merely on investment in green tech and not so much on mitigating the social impact on vulnerable communities.

Therefore, the EU has recently unveiled a €17.5 billion so-called  Just Transition Fund intended to "alleviate the socio-economic costs triggered by climate transition."

But many experts think the sum is still far too small.

Bela Galgoczi, a senior researcher at the European Trade Union Institute —  a research center of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) — has described the Just Transition Fund as "absolutely not enough."

He argues even funding, boosted to €19.3 billion recently, is mainly "dedicated to helping coal regions manage job losses," which is only a "very small fraction of people" affected by decarbonization. "Sectors such as automobiles and energy-intensive industries, do not have a dedicated instrument or a fund," he told DW.

In view of the criticism, Brussles is now planning to provide additional funding for vulnerable communities with a so-called Social Climate Fund (SFC).  The fund will pool revenues from the auctioning of allowances from the European Emissions Trading system. Together with a mandatory 25% contribution from member states, Brussels hopes the SCF will mobilise at least €86.7 billion over the 2026-2032 period.