High-stakes Gaza ceasefire talks resume this week. Here are the main obstacles to a deal

The high-stakes meeting set to take place on Thursday will have Qatar, Egypt and the United States present a plan to implement a ceasefire-hostage deal. The deal was proposed by US President Joe Biden in May – but unresolved differences have left the path forward unclear.

Israel is sending a delegation to the talks, which are expected to be attended by CIA director Bill Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamel, a diplomatic source close to negotiations told CNN.

Hamas, however, has said it will not participate in talks Thursday but is willing to speak to mediators afterwards if there are “developments or a serious response from Israel,” the source told CNN.

“Our position was clear… we will not go for new negotiation rounds. We will only go to implement what has been agreed on,” Basem Naim, a member of the Hamas political bureau, told CNN on Tuesday.

Here’s what we know about the status of the talks so far.

What is Biden’s proposal?

In May, Biden laid out a three-phase proposal the administration said was submitted by Israel that would pair a release of hostages from Gaza with a “full and complete ceasefire” and a release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

The first phase would last six weeks and include the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza” and the “release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners” and the implementation of a temporary truce.

Phase 2 would allow for the “exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers” and a permanent end to the fighting.

In Phase 3, a “major reconstruction plan for Gaza would commence and any final remains of hostages who’ve been killed will be returned to their families,” the US president said.

It is unclear how many of the original hostages set for release are still alive.

Hamas and Israel have been engaged in tedious negotiations for months. Officials from Qatar and Egypt act as intermediaries, delivering messages to Israeli and Hamas representatives in shuttle-style diplomacy since representatives from the warring parties are not present at the same location. Technical teams have flown in and out of Doha and Cairo to iron out details for a potential agreement.

What are the key remaining sticking points to Biden’s proposal?

Despite an initial positive reaction from Hamas and Israel, both sides failed to agree on the implementation of the finer details of the proposal including the sequencing of the hostage-prisoner exchange, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released and how far back Israeli forces should withdraw in Gaza.

Netanyahu has been accused of undermining the deal as far-right members of his ruling coalition threaten to collapse the government despite pressure from the US and families of hostages.

Last month, the prime minister reversed on a key Israeli concession in ceasefire negotiations, demanding that armed men be barred from returning to northern Gaza during an eventual ceasefire, an Israeli source familiar with the talks told CNN. Israel had previously agreed to allow Palestinians unrestricted access to northern Gaza.

Netanyahu’s office on Tuesday rejected claims that the prime minister had changed positions, saying his most recent stance “does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine” the May proposal. Netanyahu’s office instead accused Hamas of adding unrealistic demands to its position.

The prime minister’s office also addressed three contentious issues in the negotiations including the movement of armed men from southern Gaza to the north, the number of living hostages to be released, and Israel retaining the right to approve the Palestinian prisoners that will be released as well as whether they should be sent into exile.

A senior US administration official, speaking to reporters this week, said the “bulk of the work” has been done for the deal, but it’s unlikely that it will be signed at Thursday’s meeting as both sides still have positions on “four or five issues.”

A regional diplomat familiar with the negotiations told CNN that the remaining sticking points for Hamas are Israel’s restrictions on the movement of people from southern Gaza to the north, its demand for a veto over which Palestinian prisoners would be released, as well as its continued presence at the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.

The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

What is Hamas’ position on Thursday’s talks?

US officials had said that talks had reached an advanced stage until Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in late July in an assassination Iran blamed on Israel. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied responsibility, but Iran has vowed vengeance.

There were concerns that the assassination would throw a wrench in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The militant group replaced Haniyeh with Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader in Gaza who is one of Israel’s most wanted men. While Haniyeh, a relative moderate, lived in Qatar and was susceptible to pressure from his host country, Sinwar is believed to be deep underground in a tunnel in Gaza and is hard to reach.

Hamas hasn’t ruled out an agreement with Israel, but has said that it won’t engage in further negotiations. It has instead asked mediators for a plan to implement a ceasefire proposal put forward by Biden.

The senior Biden administration official who spoke to journalists last week said that a framework agreement is on the table and that it is “the details of implementation that are left to conclude.”

A Hamas source told CNN on Wednesday that the group has adopted a position of “intentional ambiguity” over whether it will attend ceasefire talks, adding that its position on a potential ceasefire is firm whether not it attends the talks.

Asked why Hamas has been unclear about whether it will attend the ceasefire talks, the source said: “This ambiguity is the movement’s position, which was announced in its latest statement, is intentional and did not come by chance. It comes as a result of Netanyahu’s behavior.”

Why are Thursday’s talks so important?

Thursday’s ceasefire talks are the result of a major diplomatic effort by mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US to push for a last-ditch effort to end the war and free the hostages as Iran prepares to attack Israel.

The urgency of the talks was highlighted by the three mediators, who issued a rare joint statement last week calling on the warring parties to return to negotiations and offered what they called a “final bridge proposal” to overcome the remaining sticking points. The details of that proposal have not been made public.

In parallel, US and Middle East diplomats have been mobilizing to dissuade Iran from launching an attack on Israel that could lead to a wider regional war. Both Iran and the US have said that that lines of communication between them are open through intermediaries.

There have been some indications that Iran may abandon plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire deal is reached. But the country’s mission to the United Nations said on Saturday that Tehran’s retaliation is “totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire.”

As of Tuesday afternoon, US officials didn’t believe that Iran has decided on a course of retaliatory action against Israel, according to two US administration officials. Furious diplomatic backchannel efforts are ongoing to try to deter a wide-scale attack and de-escalate the volatile situation, one of those officials said.

Israel and US brace for Iranian attack as diplomats push hard for Gaza ceasefire

The second official added that the Biden administration does believe that the US’s public warnings in recent days have affected Iran’s calculus.

Biden acknowledged the challenges facing a ceasefire deal Tuesday, telling reporters traveling with him to New Orleans he’s “concerned” about negotiations between the two parties amid the looming threat of an attack on Israel from Iran.

The president rebuffed questions on what he’s doing to pressure Israel and Hamas to come to the bargaining table for proposed ceasefire deal talks Thursday, telling reporters, “If I told you what pressure that I’m putting on it, it wouldn’t be very much pressure would it?”

The regional diplomat who spoke to CNN said there is concern that Iran may not hold back on striking Israel, as the diplomat believes the Biden administration is not applying enough pressure on Netanyahu to reach an agreement.

The lack of clarity on whether the Israeli prime minister will adhere to Biden’s May proposal, the source added, suggests time is running out to strike a deal before an Iranian attack. Qatar and Egypt, the source said, may not have enough influence to push Hamas to compromise.

-CNN