How online disinformation could lead to post-election unrest

As millions of Americans cast early ballots in person or by post, disinformation has been ramping up on social media, primarily on pro-Republican accounts: claims of ballots being stolen or destroyed, overseas voting being rigged and fraudulent voter registrations.

These posts will be used to paint a picture of an illegitimate election and mobilise people on to the streets in the event of a close win by Kamala Harris, experts say.

Alex Krasodomski, senior research associate at Chatham House, said if Ms Harris wins by a narrow margin "that's not going to be the story".

"The story will be: 'This was stolen. Time to take action.' And there's now so much 'evidence' for that line of thinking."

Sky News' Data and Forensics team looks at how false narratives have developed online and what risks that poses for the election aftermath.

Video shared with false claim it shows ballots being stolen from mailbox

On 4 November, a video filmed in the Crown Heights area of New York City was widely shared alongside claims it shows ballots being stolen from a mailbox.

While Sky News has confirmed the video was filmed in Crown Heights, it does not appear to show people's postal ballots being stolen.

The mailbox shown appears to be a "relay box", which are exclusively used by postal workers to store sorted mail that is being delivered. It is not possible to post ballots and other mail by depositing them in such boxes.

On its website, the US Postal Service describes the boxes as "an olive green lockable receptacle in which city carriers leave mail on the line of travel for later pickup and delivery by another carrier. It resembles a standard blue collection box without the pull-down letter slot".

This description matches the box shown in the video. While the paint is faded in the video, older photographs on Google Streetview confirm it is olive green and does not have a slot for depositing letters.

Voters registering at court building falsely implied to be indicative of fraud

On the night before election day, a pro-Republican election monitoring organisation posted a video filmed outside Maricopa County Recorder's office.

A person in the video says 60 people have registered to vote using this location as their address, and begins to question people outside.

He states it is "suspicious" and says "we're trying to get to the bottom of it".

But people who do not have a permanent home are allowed to register their address as their local county courthouse in order to vote, according to Maricopa County's election rules.

A check of the location in the video reveals it is part of Maricopa County's central court building.

Postal worker misidentified as man dropping off illegal ballots

On October 30, numerous accounts shared a video of a man carrying boxes into an election office in Northampton County, Pennsylvania.

Despite no apparent signs anything in the video is amiss, it was repeatedly shared with claims it shows fake ballots being delivered.

One user on X summarised these concerns, stating "Man drops a bucket full of fake ballots off. Need help identifying this man".

News agency Reuters and debunking website Lead Stories were told by Northampton County Executive the man in the video is Charles Narciso, a postal worker with the United States Postal Service.

Speaking to Reuters, the Executive said: "Here you have the most normal, natural, legal thing in the world going on, the post office delivering the mail."

US security agencies warn of Russian disinformation

Hours before the polls opened, US security agencies warned of a Russian-linked disinformation blitz that was likely to intensify through election day and the coming weeks.

Fake videos and articles are aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the election, instilling fear in voters about the election process and suggesting Americans are "using violence against each other due to political preferences", the joint statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said.

"These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials," it added.

Foreign influence operations are not about individual "falsifiable claims", Mr Krasodomski says, but are aimed at increasing distrust of government, the election process and "to basically get people upset".

"If Trump wins this will just fade away into the ether," he says.

But if Harris wins, the stage has been set for people to consider her win illegitimate and be galvanised to "take to the streets or mobilise in some other way", he says.

He added: "We know some proportion of Trump supporters have a track record of not going down quietly and being quite willing to support an anti-democratic, anti-election action and I would expect this was designed to foment that in the wake of the election."

US security agencies singled out two examples of disinformation. One was a video of an interview with a fake "whistleblower" claiming the election in Arizona was being rigged through fake overseas ballots and changing voter rolls to favour Kamala Harris.

It was dismissed by Arizona secretary of state Adrian Fontes as "a stupid, ham-handed attempt" at election interference by "foreign adversaries".

The other was an article posted by Russian actors falsely claiming US officials in swing states were plotting election fraud using tactics including ballot stuffing and cyber attacks.

In a statement, the Russian Embassy in the US called the allegations "baseless" and said it had not received any proof from US officials that Russia was involved in "disseminating fabricated videos".

Video staged to falsely claim mail in ballots were destroyed in Buck's County, Pennsylvania

On 24 October, a video was shared by a Q-Anon affiliated account on X showing a person opening what appear to be mail-in ballots and tearing up ones for Donald Trump.

The author of this post claimed the video shows "Destruction of Trump mail-in ballots caught on camera in Bucks County, PA" and added,"This shocking footage must be investigated immediately".

While the post was subsequently deleted, it was reposted over 8,000 times and liked by more than 11,500 accounts.

Comparing the ballots shown in the video to reference material posted by Buck's County election officials shows they are fake.

The colour of the outer envelope is not green, and the yellow envelope containing the ballot is glossy. Both features indicate the ballots in the viral video are fakes.

In a statement posted online, the Buck's County District Attorney's office said: "Our investigation has concluded that this video was fabricated in an attempt to undermine confidence in the upcoming election."

Looked for voters, found nun

On 22 October, a pro-Republican activist posted a video showing data on registered voters at a Pennsylvania address.

The record shows more than 50 names attached to the address. The activist claimed when door knockers visited, they were told nobody lived there, and stated their attorneys were reviewing what he implied were fraudulent voter registrations intended to favour democrats.

In response to repeated claims that nobody lives at the address, the Benedictine Sisters of Erie released a statement, saying: "We want to call Cliff Maloney to account for his blatantly false post that accuses our sisters of fraud.

"We do live at Mount Saint Benedict Monastery and a simple web search would alert him to our active presence in a number of ministries in Erie."

A search of the address shows it is a monastery attached to the Benedictine Sisters. The organisation's website lists 67 people attached to the location.

On a separate page, the organisation says it has "nearly 70 vowed sisters at the monastery".

Why disinformation is focusing on battleground states

Many of the claims of election fraud have concentrated on swing states, according to US security agencies.

Katja Bego, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, says the narrative of a rigged election "is a lot more credible in a very close election that maybe only involves thousands or tens of thousands of votes".

But this can be spun out into a "nationwide narrative" of distrust in the election process, she says, meaning any violence in the wake of the results will not necessarily be limited to these states.

-SKY NEWS