Pakistan: Why banning Imran Khan's party could backfire

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan remains a very popular politician in Pakistan despite being ousted two years ago in a vote of no confidence, and facing charges in several cases, ranging from corruption to treason.

In February, candidates backed by Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, who were forced to run as independents, won the most seats in Pakistan's general elections, even after facing a widespread clampdown and alleged vote rigging by their opponents.

Now, days after a Supreme Court decision legally recognized the PTI as a party, therefore allowing it the most seats in Pakistan's Parliament, the coalition government, headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, said it would seek to ban the party outright.

"We believe that there is credible evidence that PTI should be banned," Atta Tarar, Pakistan's information minister, told DW. He cited several allegations levied against Khan, including leaking state secrets, receiving foreign funding and inciting riots after his ouster. 

Clampdown on Khan

Pakistan's coalition government, led by Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), is widely seen as having the backing of the country's military, which analysts say has a long history of meddling in politics.

Khan became prime minister in 2018 and was ousted in 2022 after falling out with Pakistan's powerful generals. 

The country saw weeks of protests after he was removed from power. Some of Khan's supporters clashed with security forces, and even raided military buildings.

The 71-year-old has been imprisoned since August 2023, and was banned from standing in the election.

Although Khan's conviction and seven-year sentence for illegal marriage was overturned by an Islamabad court on Saturday, he was not freed and remains in jail on other charges.

Could PTI ban lead to political unrest?

Political analysts have expressed concern that banning the PTI could lead to more political violence, and lead to a constitutional crisis in Pakistan.

Political analyst Zahid Hussain told DW that banning the party would be "a disaster" that could "lead to the government's own downfall."

"There are very few incidents in Pakistan when a political party has been banned. The decision could lead to uncertainty and chaos," he said.

Hammad Azhar, a PTI official, told DW that the move will increase political instability in Pakistan.

"The government is suppressing the public will, which, in this age, never works. This is an old playbook. This will lead to more instability and people of Pakistan are now overwhelmingly clear that their will is actively being suppressed," he said.

PTI set to remain popular with voters 

Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW that the effort to ban PTI will further undermine the legitimacy of the coalition government in the eyes of many Pakistani voters and increase PTI's popularity. 

"It is likely to be counterproductive," Afzal said. She added that it is not clear whether the move to ban the PTI would succeed.

"It will go to the courts, and will intensify the judiciary and [military] establishment clash that is already underway," she said.

On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the PTI was eligible for more than 20 extra reserved seats in Parliament, building pressure on Sharif's weak coalition government.

Afzal said the government's attempt to ban the PTI was "desperate, anti-democratic and destructive."

"It follows the Supreme Court's decision restoring PTI to the status of a party, which made it the single largest party in parliament," she said.

"I think all sides need to talk and end the politics of vendettas and persecution, but it is unlikely. The focus needs to be elections and Parliament, and respecting voter mandates — but it is currently an authoritarian approach, antithetical to democracy," she added.

No reconciliation in sight

The political analyst Hussain said the government's intent was to keep Khan in jail for an extended period and even "impose an emergency situation in the country."

"Reconciliation is long needed to fix the political landscape of the country, but it is not going to likely happen in this situation, and the PTI cannot sit with the government for reconciliation," he said.

Azhar from the PTI said political reconciliation was not possible under the current government, whose legitimacy he believes "rests on an artificial and forged mandate."

"We feel there can be no compromise on even a single vote that people of Pakistan have cast," he said.

"We are all open for talks, as far as the establishment is concerned, but within the parameters of democracy, constitution and the rule of the law," he added.