Preparing to again defend Israel, US presses Iran and Israel to de-escalate

In just the past few days, President Joe Biden and his top diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have held a flurry of calls with counterparts across the Middle East. They have each had numerous exchanges with the leaders and foreign ministers of Jordan, Qatar and Egypt with a message of de-escalation.

“We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners communicating that message directly to Iran. We communicated that message directly to Israel,” Blinken said on Tuesday. “Everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict, instability, insecurity for everyone.”

The looming Iranian attack would come in response to Israel last week killing the top military commander for Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon. The next day, Israel is widely believed to have assassinated Hamas’ political leader in Tehran, which Israel has not admitted to carrying out.

Hezbollah leader says group will respond but keeping Israelis waiting is part of ‘punishment’

Iran and its proxies have been seen beginning to make some preparations for a potential retaliation against Israel, according to two US officials familiar with intelligence. The sources would not elaborate on what kind of preparations are being made.

Multiple US officials have told CNN that the US expects an attack against Israel in the coming days. It remains unclear whether there will be a coordinated response between Tehran and Hezbollah.

Officials have also told CNN that Iran is still believed to be deliberating the scope of its response.

One US official and one western intelligence official told CNN that fears are higher now about Hezbollah taking action than Iran, raising the prospect that the Lebanon-based militia group – which is funded, equipped and trained by Iran – may act without them.

With American and Israeli officials believing an attack by Iran and its axis may just be a question of when, what happens after that then falls to Israel. Much will depend on both what is targeted – military or civilian sites – and the deadliness of those strikes.

While the US does hold secret, indirect talks with Iran – often in Oman – other countries like Qatar and Jordan speak with Tehran directly and openly. Jordan’s foreign minister made a rare trip to Tehran over the weekend, and Qatar often acts as a go-between for the US.

New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on Sunday that Haniyeh’s assassination was a “major mistake by the Zionist regime (Israel) that will not go unanswered,” according to Iranian state TV.

On Wednesday, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will convene in the Saudi Arabian port city Jeddah at Iran’s request to discuss Haniyeh’s killing. The Hamas official had been in Iran for Pezeshkian’s inauguration, which has added to the Iranian anger at Israel for carrying out such a brazen murder of their guest in their capital.

Arab foreign ministers are expected to continue pressing Iran for restraint while also criticizing Israel for Haniyeh’s killing.

The day before Haniyeh was killed, Israeli jets carried out a targeted strike in southern Beirut targeting Hezbollah military commander Fu’ad Shakr. At least three others were killed, according to Lebanese media.

The growing fears of what may unfold comes just under four months since a huge attack by Iran against Israel, which saw more than 300 missiles and drones fired against Israel in waves.

In that case, Iran’s unprecedented direct attack against Israel was an attempt to avenge another Israeli strike in the Syrian capital of Damascus against a diplomatic facility that killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.

Almost everything Iran fired was intercepted by Israel’s air defenses but with significant help from the US, UK, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The American military commander for the Middle East, General Erik Kurilla, was back in Israel on Monday as the US tries to resurrect a similar multi-national effort to shield Israel for the attacks. But it’s unclear to what extent critical Arab allies will participate given their anger over the assassination of Haniyeh, which US officials were also frustrated by.

“It’s not helped,” Biden told reporters on Thursday.

-CNN