Republicans absorb a political shockwave in must-win North Carolina

It was during a regular meeting of the Johnston County Republican Women’s committee that they heard the news.

All around North Carolina on Thursday, Republicans and Democrats alike had been waiting for what was billed as a bombshell exposé about Republican Lt Gov Mark Robinson.

The furniture maker-turned-politician, who is running to be the state’s first black governor, had called himself a “black Nazi” on a porn website more than a decade ago, according to a report by CNN.

Robinson, who identifies as an evangelical Christian, branded the report "tabloid lies". The BBC has not independently verified CNN’s claims.

But when the news finally did break, it barely caused a stir, at least not among this polite gathering of women in Johnston County.

“If the accusations are accurate, it’s something for him and his wife to deal with. It’s not my business. It’s a marital issue,” said Adele Walker, 52.

Soon afterwards, the group discussed their planned $200 donation to his campaign, in which he is already trailing the Democratic candidate Josh Stein, the state's attorney general.

“What we decided is that we’re going to donate even more money to Mr Robinson,” she said.

Adele Walker said she's sticking by Robinson

The opinions of conservative women like Walker are being closely watched this election, not just in North Carolina, but across the US. The Tar Heel State has one of the closest races in the country with November's election looming.

Trump had previously offered a glowing endorsement of Robinson, calling him "Martin Luther King on steroids".

Even before the CNN exposé was published, Robinson was under scrutiny.

He has faced backlash over 2019 comments in a Facebook video about abortion on demand, when he said women should be "responsible enough to keep your skirt down".

In 2021, he said children in schools should not be learning about "transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth", and later rejected calls to apologise.

“I think it's fair to call the Robinson campaign a dumpster fire at this point,” said North Carolina State University political scientist Steven Greene.

There are fears among some Republicans that Robinson could be a political albatross, causing their voters to stay home, or driving Democratic turnout.

North Carolina has remained “stubbornly Republican”, said Greene. Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win the state in 44 years, and he could only succeed once, in 2008.

But the state’s growing urban centres have tilted the political scales towards Democrats, who hope this is the year they can turn North Carolina blue.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Thursday, before the CNN report about Robinson was published, showed Harris leading Trump by one percentage point.

That is still well within the margin of error, which means the race is very much up in the air.

This state is essential for the Republican White House candidate, Greene said.

“It's a lot harder to see Donald Trump getting to 270 without North Carolina than Kamala Harris,” he said, referring to the number of electoral college votes needed to clinch the US presidency.

Scott Lassiter, a Republican, says Robinson is a gift to Democrats

Scott Lassiter, a Republican running for state Senate, expressed disappointment that Robinson did not drop out before a state deadline on Thursday, allowing another candidate from the party to take his place.

Lassiter said Robinson is a gift to Democrats, who “would love for every race on the ballot to be about Mark Robinson at this point”.

Once a regular at Trump’s campaign events in the state, Robinson will not attend the former president’s rally in Wilmington on Saturday, according to reports.

But those close to Robinson are sticking by him.

Guilford County chairman Chris Meadows, a Republican, said he’s known Robinson, who's from the area, for years.

“Our position is that these are unsubstantiated allegations, accusations," he said.

“In the age of the improvement of AI, I really don’t put any credibility in any of this until he admits it.

"CNN has a great deal of credibility problems and they have for several years.”

In the end, Greene said the presidential race will all come down to voter turnout, and it’s unclear how Robinson will affect that.

He was already known for outlandish statements. People’s minds are probably largely made up, he said.

It certainly seemed that way in Johnston County.

One Republican voter, who did not want to be named, said he would not vote for Robinson, who he said “had a loud mouth”.

But he has no problem voting for Trump.

“I don’t know what Trump knew about Robinson. The news of Robinson has no effect on me,” he said.

Evelyn Costelloe, 66, who has voted for Republicans in the past but not recently, said she will back the Democrats because of their stance on abortion. And Robinson’s comments didn’t help either, she said.

“I don’t know about all these accusations, but I do know the stuff he’s said. Stuff like that makes me want to vote for sure,” she told the BBC.

Given that Trump only won North Carolina by about 75,000 votes in 2020, even a little bit of political damage spilling over from Robinson could make a difference.

For now, however, North Carolina remains a deep shade of purple.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his weekly US Election Unspun newsletter.

-BBC