St Swithin's Day: will it rain for another 40 days?

While there is no scientific evidence of this happening, it does raise the question every year on the longer term forecast as the summer holidays begin.

After a cool and wet start to the summer this year, this has been even more the case.

St Swithin's Day has also been given a cultural boost after the Netflix hit series One Day.

Who was St Swithin?

St Swithin was the Bishop of Winchester from 852 to 862 AD.

On his request, rather than being buried in Winchester cathedral, he was buried in a simple tomb in the graveyard "where the sweet rain of heaven may fall upon my grave".

However, on 15 July 971 AD his body was moved inside the cathedral.

A huge storm then hit and it supposedly rained for 40 days after.

Legend suggests that the spirit of St Swithin was so outraged at being moved that he was responsible for this weather.

The folklore therefore suggests:

"St Swithin's Day, if it does rain

Full forty days, it will remain

St Swithin's Day, if it be fair

For forty days, t'will rain no more"

Is there any truth to the folklore?

No.

The Met Office, which look after weather statistics for the UK, has said that since the start of records in 1861, there has never been a record of 40 dry or 40 wet days in a row following St Swithin's Day.

The closest we have got in the modern record was in Cassley, Highland, which once experienced rain on St Swithin's Day and on the following 34 days.

Will it stop raining this week?

It is not lost on me that on this St Swithin's Day, heavy rain is spreading across the UK with yellow weather warnings issued.

While it could bring some localised flooding and travel disruption, for many it will just add to the feeling of a lack of any summery weather recently.

July has been cooler and wetter than average for many of us.

As we have just seen, the St Swithin folklore has never actually resulted in rain persisting for another 40 days.

So, the rain will stop.

There will be some periods of drier weather, mostly later in the week with some hints of more prolonged drier and warmer weather for the end of July and into August.

Netflix boost

St Swithin's Day has recently featured in the hit television series One Day, streaming on Netflix.

While not about the weather, it follows a love story of Emma and Dexter who meet at university.

Based on the novel by David Nicholls we see how the couple develop their relationship spanning many years with events on just "one day" - St Swithin's Day.

It is reported that Mr Nicholls chose St Swithin's Day because he grew up near Winchester Cathedral and knew the folklore well.

The day also needed to be in the summer because the characters would meet at a university graduation.

He said: “It’s an attempt to predict the future, which is, of course, impossible. So it ties into the themes of fate, predestination, and the unpredictability of the future.”

-bbc