US election latest: Team Trump - 'if we're right on one prediction, we should win'; stars urge voters to back Harris

'I hear we're doing very well': Trump casts ballot with wife Melania near Florida home

Donald Trump has arrived to vote in Palm Beach near his home, alongside his wife, Melania.

Wearing a bright red MAGA hat, the former president stops to speak to the media, and says: "I have been very honoured to find out the lines are long, the conservative lines, the Republican lines are very long."

He goes on to say that they arrived back in Florida "very late last night" after "four incredible rallies", and adds: "I hear we're doing very well."

Asked by a reporter how he will reach out to voters opposed to him, Mr Trump says they "want to bring everybody in" and "will be very inclusive".

"We have a great country, but we have a country that's in trouble. It's in big trouble in many ways, and we have to straighten it out," he says. 

Mr Trump says he feels "very confident" about his chances in this election, saying he went into election day today "with a very big lead".

"It looks like Republicans have shown up in force, so we'll see how it turns out," he says, adding that of the three presidential campaigns, this was the best one they've run.

The former president also hits out at the fact that we may not know the result of the election tonight, saying it should be "over by 10pm".

Singling out Pennsylvania, he says it is "an absolute outrage" that it could take two or three days for the result to be known.

He says he will be watching the results come in from his home in Mar-a-Lago, and asserts that he has a "substantial lead".

Asked if he is telling his supporters there should be no violence around the election result, he says: "I don't have to tell them that. Of course there'll be no violence. My supporters are not violent people."

He also says that he "would think" that this is his final presidential campaign.

Voters in crucial Pennsylvania get nine political flyers in single day

Pennsylvania is "almost certainly" going to decide the election, a political commentator has said.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have focused both their campaigns on the state, which has a crucial 19 electoral votes up for grabs. 

Dr Thomas Gift, founding director of the centre on US politics at University College London, says according to forecasts, a win for Ms Harris in Pennsylvania puts her odds of winning the election at 91%, while for Mr Trump it would be 96%.

He says it has been "impossible" to turn on the television in Pennsylvania "without seeing an ad for either the Trump or Harris campaigns".

"I just spoke to my parents, who are in Pennsylvania now, and they said they received nine flyers in the mail in one day. So it's clear that these candidates are spending an enormous amount of funds in Pennsylvania," Dr Gift adds.

"They've been crisscrossing the states in recent days. It's going to be the decider almost certainly."

What can we tell from early voting?

Before the polls opening, more than 80 million people had cast ballots in early voting in the US.

Dr Gift says Republican turnout in particular has benefited from Mr Trump "reluctantly" embracing early voting this election.

"It's making a difference in some of these states, at least compared to the numbers in 2020 that we saw at this point," he says.

There is "almost parity" between the split of Democrat and Republican early voters, with slightly more Democrats casting ballots before election day, he explains.

Obama makes vote plea: 'This election is going to be close'

Barack Obama says the razor-thin race for the White House could be decided by "a handful of votes" in each precinct in a new video urging voters to head to the polls.

"Folks, this election is going to be close," he says in the video posted to X.

Mr Obama has been hitting the campaign trail in support of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz along with his wife Michelle and fellow former president Bill Clinton.

FBI: Terror warning circulating in online video is fake

As voters cast their ballots, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has released a statement about two fake videos circulating.

The first is "a fabricated news clip purporting to be a terrorist warning issued by the FBI".

The agency says the video states Americans should "vote remotely" due to a high threat of terrorism at polling stations, and says emphatically that it is "not authentic and does not accurately represent the current threat posture or polling location safety".

A second fake video contains a "fabricated FBI press release" which claims that the management of five prisons in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona "rigged inmate voting and colluded with a political party".

"This video is also not authentic, and its contents are false," the FBI says.

The agency adds the integrity of the election is one of its highest priorities, and it is working with local law enforcement "to respond to election threats and protect our communities as Americans exercise their right to vote".

"Attempts to deceive the public with false content about FBI threat assessments and activities aim to undermine our democratic process and erode trust in the electoral system," the statement says.

"The FBI encourages everyone to seek election and voting information from reliable sources, such as your local election office."

The margin of error: What it means and why it's vital to understanding polls

As keen election readers will know, polling in this race has been exceptionally close.

Both of the most recent Reuters/Ipsos polls show the candidates within the margin of error (plus or minus three percentage points).

Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump 46% to 43% on Tuesday and 45% to 42% a week prior.

With so many survey results within the margin of error, we take a look at what it means and why it's important.

What is it?

The margin of error is another term for the confidence pollsters have in their survey.

It is determined by sample size and weighting, a method of more accurately representing groups who are more difficult to contact that widens the margin of error.

Reuters/Ipsos believe that in their latest survey, the candidates' support lies somewhere between three points in either direction of the reported result.

Ms Harris has somewhere between 43% and 49% of the public's support, while Mr Trump has between 40% and 46%.

When is a candidate outside the margin of error?

Combining the ranges above, you'll notice Mr Trump wins in some permutations, despite the headline figure putting Ms Harris ahead.

It is for this reason that a candidate's lead is not "outside the margin of error" by simply polling more than three percentage points ahead of their opponent.

Each candidate has their own +/- three-point margin of error, so the leading candidate must be beating their rival by six percentage points (for example, if Ms Harris polls 49% to 40%) to be winning in a meaningful way.

If Ms Harris was beating Mr Trump by 47% to 43%, the race is still too close to call because their margins of error overlap, meaning the same poll says Mr Trump could win if he gained two or three percentage points and Ms Harris lost the same amount (for example, Harris: 44% versus Trump: 45%).

Police officers on roof as vote counting under way in key city

Absentee vote counting is under way in downtown Detroit, Michigan - one of seven key swing states. 

In 2020, chaos unfolded here at the Huntington Place convention centre as people pounded on the doors and windows during the count. 

This year, the level of security is intense. Police officers are strategically positioned in the surrounding streets, inside the building and even on the roof.

"This time we changed the process by having a more spacious venue. We have more time to tabulate," Daniel Baxter, chief operating officer at the Detroit elections department, said.

The security search to enter the building is meticulous. 

No outside liquids are allowed in the vast counting room.

"We have put security measures in place to ensure that the people that are in here are credentialed individuals to ensure the protection of poll workers."

Biden tells voters to 'make history' as he spends quiet day at White House

Joe Biden has called on voters to "make history" by electing Kamala Harris as his successor as he prepared for a quiet election day at the White House.

"Go vote," he said in a post to X.

The US president dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Ms Harris in July, as calls for him to withdraw intensified after a disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump.

Mr Biden returned to the White House yesterday after spending most of the weekend in Delaware with a final campaign stop in Pennsylvania.

He is spending the day - one of his last as president - at the Washington residence waiting to see if he will hand off power to his vice president or back to Donald Trump.

First lady Jill Biden began today in Wilmington, Delaware, where she will cast her vote in person before returning to join her husband tonight.

A White House official told our US partner NBC Newsthat the president and the first lady will watch election results in the White House with long-time aides and senior staff.

Trump shouts out to 'friend' Farage

Donald Trump finished up the last of his campaign rallies yesterday and found time to call out his "friend" Nigel Farage.

While speaking on stage at Pennsylvania, he said Mr Farage is doing a "great job" and has "always been my friend, for some reason".

Mr Farage, who was at the rally, said yesterday Mr Trump should accept the result of the US election if he loses decisively.

He told the Daily Telegraph he did not agree with the 2020 "stolen election narrative", adding: "Let's hope and pray that is not an issue this time."

"If it was clear and decisive then maybe it's time to go and play golf at Turnberry," he added, referring to Mr Trump's golf course in South Ayrshire, Scotland.

Gaffes, drop-outs and assassination attempts: Seven videos that sum up the campaign

This campaign has been filled with dramatic moments - from drop-outs to assassination attempts - so let's take you through some of the key ones. 

Assassination attempt 

The first of two assassination attempts against the life of Donald Trump was caught on camera.

On 13 July, a gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, fired several shots at the Republican candidate in Butler, Pennsylvania...

Trump defiant at RNC

Amid a swell of support, Mr Trump quashed rumours and conspiracy theories surrounding his marriage by appearing with Melania Trump and his family at the Republican National Convention on 19 July.

He also discussed the recent attempt on his life...

Biden pulls out of race

Days later - after a disastrous debate performance against Mr Trump - senior Democrats' pressure on Joe Biden finally proved too much for the sitting president.  

On 21 July, he formally pulled out of the race...

'That's my dad'

After Kamala Harris and Tim Walz took over the Democrat ticket, the vice presidential pick made an emotional speech at the DNC on 22 August. 

But it was his 17-year-old son Gus who stole the show.

Gus has a non-verbal learning disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, as well as an anxiety disorder, but took the limelight after standing and proclaiming proudly: "That's my dad!"

Beyonce endorses Harris 

Pop icon Beyoncé formally endorsed and spoke for Kamala Harris at a rally in Houston, Texas, on 26 October...

Biden gaffe threatens to derail Harris late on

Out of the race, but not out of the headlines, Joe Biden dropped a clanger on a public call when he appeared to brand Trump supporters "garbage". 

'Floating island of garbage'

However, the president insisted his comments referred to controversial comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who earlier had referred to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage" during a Trump rally in New York - risking alienating crucial Latino voters. 

'Dramatic shift in women voters over 65'

Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Kamala Harris, and we've seen in past elections - notably the 2022 midterms - that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.

This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Ms Harris's favour.

The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters.

Furthermore, the groups Ms Harris is polling more strongly with, such as the college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.

Women over 65

Heidi Heitkamp, former Democratic Senator for North Dakota, pointed to a poll from Iowa - which appears to have emerged as an eighth swing state with Ms Harris carrying a three-point lead over Donald Trump - showing "the dramatic shift among women over the age of 65".

"One of the most reliable voting groups in terms of people actually voting have made a dramatic turn to Kamala Harris, and that's on choice," Ms Heitkamp told Sky News. 

"And maybe, reacting to some of the misogyny that they see on the [Trump] campaign."

'Star power'

Ms Heitkamp said Ms Harris's "secret weapon" has always been her "star power".

She said it is the reason why Mr Trump "is unnerved by her".

"You know, he didn't mind standing next to Joe Biden, who is about his age... You know, has some, physical characteristics that lead people to believe that he's not capable. 

"Now he's standing next to a vibrant, young, attractive woman and I think that makes all the difference, especially in his mind, because he is such a visual politician.

"He thinks about how things look, not what's being said, but how do they look."

-SKY NEWS