War in Ukraine: Landmines to hurt food exports for years

Ukraine has become the most mine-contaminated country since World War II, casting a shadow over global food security, according to a study by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in London conducted jointly with Ukraine’s economic ministry.

A Ukrainian farmer recently said in an interview for Radio Donbas Realii — a regional news outlet of Radio Free Europe's Ukrainian Service — that he had  to "pull the mines out with my bare hands," and that he "risked his life to clear mines" from his fields after Russian troops had occupied the area.

But even after the Russian withdrawal from parts of Ukraine, farmers are still struggling, with many of them sowing their grains and oilseed on mine-contaminated fields.


How bad is the problem?

On October 17 and 18, Switzerland and Ukraine are co-hosting the Ukraine Mine Action Conference (UMAC2024)
in the Swiss city of Lausanne aimed at helping Ukraine clear mines on about 5 million hectares (12.3 million acres) — roughly 10% of its arable land. In addition, about 139,300 square kilometers (53,784 square miles), or 25% of Ukraine's entire territory, must be checked for contamination with  landminesunexploded ordnance and other explosives.  

Ukraine's agricultural sector has long been a main pillar of the country's economy, accounting for close to 11% of gross domestic product (GDP) before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This figure had fallen to 7.4% by the end of 2023.

According to data presented in the Tony Blair Institute's report, landmines are "suppressing Ukraine’s GDP by $11.2 billion (€10.27 billion) each year — equivalent to roughly 5.6% of GDP in 2021." The bulk of the shortfall, the report says, was caused by a reduction in agricultural exports, and was a major reason for Ukraine's growing trade deficit.


Agriculture in the focus of demining efforts

Ukraine's ongoing landmine problem makes it unlikely that the country's food exports will reach prewar levels any time soon, even in regions where Russian troops have been forced to pull out.  
A Ukrainian serviceman loads a robotic minelaying ground platform with land mines during a military training.

Mriya Aid is a Canadian organization helping the Ukrainian demining efforts.The organization does not directly work with farmers, but supports Ukrainian sappers' training, giving funding and equipment to clear mines across Ukraine.  

Mriya Aid Chairwoman Lesya Granger told DW that clearing the land of mines is also crucial to prevent further environmental damage," such as "leaking toxic chemicals into the soil and water, or releasing harmful particles into the atmosphere because of explosions."

Due to its huge swathes of fertile black soil, Ukraine is also called the world's bread basket. Clearing the land of mines and other contamination caused by the war, therefore, is key to restoring its role as a leading grain exporter. Countries in Asia and Africa, for example, received more than 90% of total Ukrainian wheat exports between 2016 and 2021.

Following the 2022 invasion, however, the war has rendered almost a quarter of the land unusable — an area the size of Belgium.


Is global food supply still suffering?

And yet, Ukraine is still a major producer of food for the world. In the 2023/24 marketing season — the 12-month period during which a crop is grown, harvested, and sold — Ukraine exported 57.5 million metric tons of grains and oilseed, according to data by the Ukrainian Grain Association, with Spain, Egypt and Indonesia being the largest importers of Ukrainian wheat this season.   


The situation is particularly challenging for some African nations, where countries such as Egypt and DR Congo , rely on Ukraine and Russia for over 75% of their grain imports.

After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the World Food Price Index surged 12.6% from February to March 2022, according to data compiled by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) — the highest monthly increase since FAO established its index in the 1990s.

In 2023, Ukraine made significant progress in boosting its grain exports again due to a deal with Russia that established the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed exports from the deep-sea port of Odesa. After that deal ended on Russia's initiative in August 2023, Ukraine introduced a new export corridor via its western coastline passing through the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria.   

The threat from weaker Ukrainian exports to African nations, however, remains "significant," said a report by the African Development Bank Group

. Average consumer price inflation in Africa rose to about 17% in 2023. While East Africa recorded the highest inflation at 26.5%, some countries, for example Sudan, saw inflation reach extreme levels of more than 200%.

Walter Leal, head of the Research and Transfer Center at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, said that countries such as Algeria and Libya have been able to ease the impact of food price hikes thanks to higher revenues from their exports of oil and gas. But for Yemen, Lebanon, or Sudan, "international food aid remains critical," he told DW.  



How long will it take to restore Ukrainian food exports?

Oleg Pendzin, an economist from Ukraine, says landmines are just one of many problems besetting agriculture at the moment.

"You can clear the mines and secure international funding, but even with demining, drones can still strike, putting workers at risk," he told DW.

Also crucial, he added, was the restoration of water supply and the rebuilding of the  Kakhovka Dam, which provides water to Crimea, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and the whole region, but was destroyed in June 2023.

Moreover, the war has led to a shortage of agricultural workers. "If the people have fled or been mobilized, the land stays idle. Demined or not, there's no one left to farm. Villages in eastern Ukraine are empty, with only elderly residents remaining," said Pendzin.

It remains unclear when Ukraine will be free of landmines and explosives left over by the war. Even Ukrainian officials differ in their estimates, with Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko saying that demining Ukraine could take 10 years, while former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has spoken of 30 years.

Therefore, the Ukraine war will continue to "worsen food insecurity," said Walter Leal. "Especially in countries with vulnerable populations, rising prices for grain, vegetable oils and fertilizers will lead to higher food prices, increasing inflation and potential political instability."


DW