What Trump's wind order can and can't do

Why it matters:

Wind is the largest U.S. source of renewable power and provides 10% of the nation's electricity, but growth has slowed in recent years.


It now faces fresh hurdles with the EO that, at least temporarily, halts leasing and permitting in federal lands and waters.


The big picture:

Most onshore development has been elsewhere, as that map via the research firm BloombergNEF shows.


A "lack of federal oversight may save onshore wind," its note finds. Wind has flourished in red states and has bipartisan support.


Yes, but:

Onshore projects on private lands can require federal approvals or consultations, like when sensitive species are involved.


It's not immediately clear how the order might affect development in these areas.


"Of onshore wind projects, 99% are on private land, so they cannot be blocked by federal action," the Natural Resources Defense Council said.


The American Clean Power Association offers the same stat in The Washington Post.

Threat level:

Offshore projects, which are in federal waters, are more directly imperiled.

The order bars new leasing. It doesn't take immediate aim at projects already approved and under construction.

But it launches a review of existing leases that could bring terminations or amendments.


Overall, there's "significant uncertainty" for 18 gigawatts worth of planned projects, BloombergNEF finds.



What we're watching:

Trump's move explicitly thwarts the recently green-lit Lava Ridge wind farm in Idaho, but ClearView Energy Partners says the phrasing could imperil approved offshore projects, too.

"[W]e think the [attorney general] might also seek to target finalized offshore wind projects currently facing legal challenges," the research firm said in a note.


State of play:

Joe Biden's regulators approved 11 large wind projects in federal waters, which his Interior Department called enough to power over six million homes.

Three of these Atlantic coast projects are under construction, two have started onshore work, and one is complete, per E&E News.



The bottom line:

BloombergNEF warns of major delays for projects that have not reached final investment decisions.


Developers were already far off pace for the Biden-era goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore capacity operating by 2030. Now it's even further away.