How 'dangerous' is a new NATO office in Jordan?

The angry comments began as soon as the announcement was made.

NATO said at its summit in Washington last week that Jordan would host its first liaison office in the Middle East. 

"The opening of a NATO Liaison Office in Amman is a natural progression of the longstanding relationship between NATO and Jordan," a press release said. It also acknowledged Jordan "as a beacon of stability in both regional and global contexts."

Others didn't see things in such a positive light.

"Betrayal runs in their veins," one social media user based in Algeria wrote on Facebook under a news article about the new NATO office. "How do you explain shaking the hand of those who kill your brothers everywhere?"

"Jordan has been sold without a shot fired," added another user, also from Algeria.

"Where are the free people of Jordan? Do they agree with this?" a commentator from Tunisia scolded.

The idea of the NATO office also spawned a number of conspiracy theories. Some speculated that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must now want to be actively involved in conflicts in Gaza or Lebanon on behalf of Israel.

This is not the first time in recent months that Jordan has been the target of this kind of criticism. In April, after Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, the country played a significant role in fending off the attack.

Jordan said it was only protecting its own airspace, but this was seen as problematic by many Jordanians. One in five people there, including the country's queen, are of Palestinian descent, and the Palestinian desire for statehood is a cause close to the hearts of many.

However, in reality, Jordan — where political dissent is often suppressed by the ruling royal family — has a close, security-focused relationship with neighboring Israel that is seldom reported inside Jordan itself. It has also been collaborating with NATO and the United States, a major ally, for decades on various defense and military activities. 

NATO did not respond to a DW request on when the office might open. However, it cannot be too far away: A recent NATO job posting, seeking a chief for the liaison office, set August 25 as the deadline for applications.

Unpopular NATO

Despite the proximity to Gaza, the new NATO liaison office in Jordan has nothing to do with the conflict there, experts told DW.

"Despite the tremendous increase in hostilities in the region — Israel-Hamas, of course, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis, Iran, and so on — the decision by NATO was almost certainly long planned rather than a reaction to current conflicts," Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, told DW.

An Amman office for NATO was being discussed back in July 2023, long before the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and the ensuing Israeli military campaign in Gaza.

The conflict in Gaza possibly accelerated the planning for the office, according to Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow in the Africa and Middle East division at the Berlin-based Institute for International and Security Affairs. "But I don't think that NATO has any appetite to move closer to the Middle East conflict," she told DW. 

Additionally, the new liaison office is hardly NATO's first foray into the Middle East. The organization already has a wide range of partnerships in the region.

Amman office both significant and symbolic

Despite all the online outrage, how big a deal is this NATO liaison office in Amman really?

From NATO's perspective, it can be seen as a significant milestone, said H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"It shows NATO is keen to emphasize that the world has changed and it is committed to showing engagement with partners in the Middle East," he said. "Considering Russian outreach into the region as well, this makes sense for NATO.

"A liaison office sets into motion a different structure and means that Jordan will have more direct cooperation in a number of shared interest areas [like] crisis management, cyber security, climate change and others," Hellyer added.

From the region's perspective, it should be seen as more of a "symbolic big deal" right now, Werenfels and Panikoff agreed. But it has the potential to grow in the future.

"The NATO [Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI)] regional center in Kuwait has already united countries in the region," said Werenfels, who was part of the independent expert group advising NATO on the region. "Jordan is a fairly neutral territory in the Arab world. So I think the question now is: How big will this [Amman office] become over time? And how much will it work with other regional actors, particularly from North Africa?"

Even nations that don't want to be seen as close to NATO are interested in some of what the alliance offers, Werenfels noted.

"Populations in the region generally do not like NATO because they associate it with interventions in the past," Werenfels told DW. "But at the same time, I think the elites [in those countries] do have an interest in things like further professionalizing their militaries."

An expert report from May said no Middle Eastern country wants direct military intervention from NATO. But the report also said NATO could advance its partnerships in the region by strengthening maritime security, assisting with arms control, and helping prepare countries for climate change and other crises.

Despite popular criticism of Jordan for permitting a NATO office on its own soil, Panikoff said he doubts there's any danger of it destabilizing the country.

"For years Jordan has faced a myriad of security, economic and political pressures," he told DW. "Any increase in any one of those is probably a greater threat than slightly enhanced cooperation with NATO."

DW