IMF upgrades Nigeria’s 2023 economic growth projection to 3.2%

THE International Monetary Fund, IMF, yesterday, upgraded its projection for Nigeria’s 2023 economic growth rate to 3.2 per cent representing 0.2 percentage points increase from the 3.0 per cent   earlier projected in its October 2022 World Economic Outlook.

The IMF, in its January World Economic Outlook, based its upgrade on improved security measures in the oil sector.  

But the IMF also indicated that the growth rate will slow down to 2.9 percent in 2024. Also the IMF’s  2023 projection is 0.55 percentage points lower than the 3.75 per cent economic (Gross Domestic Product, GDP)  growth rate projected by the Federal Government.

It is, however, 0.3 percentage points higher   than   the World Bank’s projection  of 2.9 per cent, and 0.1 percentage points higher than   the African Development Bank’s   projection of 3.1 per cent   for Nigeria in 2023.   The IMF also projected that  Nigeria’s improved economic growth in 2023 will lead to  4.1 per cent economic growth for the sub-Saharan Africa region.  

The IMF also upgraded its projection for the global economic contraction for 2023 to 3.4 per cent, from 2.9 per cent projected in October, 2022.    

The IMF said: “Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.  

“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to remain moderate at 3.8 percent in 2023 amid prolonged fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, although with a modest upward revision since October, before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024.

“The small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector.”

Source: Vanguard