Politics latest: 'Pretty poor night' expected for Labour - but Runcorn by-election 'too close to call'

Lib Dems predict 'big gains in ex-Tory heartlands'

The Liberal Democrats are predicting a big night in the local elections, with a "big night" in "former Conservative heartlands".

Sir Ed Davey, the party leader, said he is anticipating big gains in the Tories' "former Middle England heartlands".

He said: "Last year the Liberal Democrats won a record number of MPs and became the largest third party in 100 years. 

"Now we are on course for our seventh year of local election gains, making this our best ever winning streak.

"Voters have delivered their verdict on a Conservative Party that broke the country and a Labour government that is too timid to fix it.

"Every Liberal Democrat councillor elected will be a strong local champion fighting tirelessly to deliver the change that people are crying out for."

There's more optimism from Farage tonight

After two rather pessimistic statements from the Conservatives and Labour, it appears Reform UK are expecting a more positive night of results.

After polls closed at 10pm, party leader Nigel Farage said the "the two major parties are more fearful of the results tonight than we are".

He said: "Thank you for voting Reform.

"We have fought a strong campaign."

To recap, Labour noted that the council and mayoral elections in England were "always going to be tough".

And the Tories said: "We also have always been clear that these would be tough elections for the party - defending an incredibly high watermark from 2021 when we took two-thirds of all seats."

We'll bring you the results as we get them into Friday.

Farage hoping for by-election bullseye - and if Labour cling on it'll be a great escape

In his early years, the teenage darts sensation Luke "the Nuke" Littler lived in Runcorn.

And as the polls closed at 10pm, Nigel Farage and Reform UK were hoping to score a by-election bullseye in the previously safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby.

After all, prior to polling day Farage had campaigned in the constituency three times and Sir Keir Starmer hadn't visited once – a stark and highly significant contrast.

The 18-year-old darts world champion isn't this constituency's only former famous resident, however.

Farage also campaigned in the constituency on polling day as his team forecast a narrow win for Reform UK.

One Reform insider told Sky News: "I think it will be within 1,000 votes, either way, but I reckon we will edge it.

"To use a Farageism: ‘We’ll win it by a gnat's knob.’"

James Bond star Daniel Craig lived in the market town of Frodsham in the constituency when his father was the landlord of a local pub.

And given Reform UK's surge in opinion polls, for Labour and the Conservatives Farage is the Bond villain of British politics, his toothy grin hiding a dangerous menace.

The pop star Gary Barlow was also raised in Frodsham. And come the end of the night, the message from Farage and Reform UK could well be: "Take that, Labour!"

The by-election count isn't taking place in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, though. We're at the DCBL Halton Stadium, home of rugby league's former giants Widnes Vikings, across the River Mersey from Runcorn.

Tonight it's the hordes of Reform UK activists who've descended on this constituency who are the piratical raiders threatening to give Sir Keir Starmer and Labour a bloody nose.

If Reform do triumph here in the first parliamentary by-election since the general election, as pollsters and bookies are predicting, there will be two key factors to blame for a Labour humiliation.

One, according to locals canvassed by Sky News, is Rachel Reeves' hugely unpopular winter fuel payment cut, which has angered older voters in the constituency.

The second is the circumstances that brought about this by-election, the brutal assault on a constituent by the former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, caught in its full horror on CCTV pictures, which it’s claimed appalled many voters here.

Amesbury had a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK in last July's general election, with the Conservatives in third place.

But that Labour majority looks extremely vulnerable tonight. Given the government's unpopularity because of issues like the winter fuel allowance, the by-election looks Reform UK's to lose.

If Labour does cling on, it will truly be a great escape. And Reform UK - unlike the ever-accurate Luke Littler - will have missed their target here.

Tories 'clear that these would be tough elections' for the party

We've also heard from the Conservatives, who are also pointing out it could be a tough night for the party.

A spokesman said: "Tonight will be the first real test of Keir Starmer's Labour government, ten months after they won an unprecedented majority at the general election.

"The Conservatives have started on the process of renewing our party under Kemi Badenoch's leadership. 

"But we also have always been clear that these would be tough elections for the party - defending an incredibly high watermark from 2021 when we took two-thirds of all seats. 

"If the 2024 general election was replicated on today’s battleground, we would lose control of almost every single council.

"Labour won a historic supermajority last year in a large number of areas that are facing local elections tonight and it would be reasonable to expect a government with such a commanding presence in Westminster to make serious progress tonight. 

"Anything less than this ought to raise serious questions about the direction Labour is taking this country, and about Keir Starmer's own leadership."

Labour: 'These elections were always going to be a challenge'

On what could be a tough night of results for Labour, it appears the party is already managing expectations.

Shortly after polls closed in council and mayoral elections - and a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby - the party chair admitted: "These elections were always going to be a challenge".

Ellie Reeves noted that they were "being held largely in areas dominated by the Conservatives, often for decades". 

She said: "That’s why Labour candidates stood on a promise to bring change right across our country. 

"There are promising signs that the Labour government’s Plan for Change is already starting to turn around 14 years of Tory failure. NHS waiting lists have fallen consistently. 

"Free breakfast clubs are starting to roll out in every primary school. Some 3.5 million workers got a pay rise with the minimum wage increase this month, with pensions rising thanks to Labour’s commitment to the triple lock. 

"But we know people aren't yet fully feeling the benefit and we are just as impatient for change as the rest of the country.

"However the results turn out this evening, this Labour government will go further and faster in turning our country around and giving Britain the future it deserves."

Mood music in Runcorn and Helsby is nervous optimism for Reform - but it's too close to call

Our political editor Beth Rigby is in Runcorn and Helsby, where a by-election took place today.

Polls have now closed - as they have in 23 councils and six mayoralities, which were also holding elections.

Beth says Runcorn was Labour 49th safest seat with a majority of 15,000 or so - "but Reform are coming for them and it could be that there is a small, minor earthquake tonight should Nigel Farage take this seat".

She adds that it is "too close to call" according to sources on both sides.

"The mood music certainly when I've called around is a bit of nervous optimism for Reform, a bit of nerves for Labour.

"But as I've said tonight it is simply too close to call."

Turning to a slew of council and mayoral elections, Beth says it's going to be a "pretty poor night" for Labour - which is braced for heavy losses.

Farage is optimistic he could win Hull, and maybe "one other" mayoralty.

It could also be a difficult night for Kemi Badenoch, Beth explains.

"The question is whether even the Liberal Democrats can push the Conservatives into third when it comes to controlling councils."

Beth points out it could be indicative that we are moving from a two party system, to a multi-party system with the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

"As it stands, all eyes on Reform to see if they can make those big gains."

Polls have closed in England

It's 10pm - and polls have closed in today's local elections. 

People have been voting for council seats in 23 regions, six mayoralities and a parliamentary seat - Runcorn and Helsby.

-SKY NEWS