The Great Resignation is 'over'. What does that mean?

Since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in 2020, millions of workers have left their jobs.

In the US, 47 million people quit in 2021, and 50 million more in 2022, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The continued exodus was so significant that in May 2021, Anthony Klotz, then-associate professor of management at Texas A&M University, coined the term ‘Great Resignation’ to put a name to the trend.

The Great Resignation was unprecedented – and particularly striking against a backdrop of incredible global uncertainty. Now, however, economists say it’s over.

May 2023 numbers from the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) suggest quits have slowed, normalising to pre-pandemic figures. “Looking at the overall resignation numbers, and seeing they’re back to 2019 levels, I think we can say it’s over. It's not just a simple start-and-stop, of course, but it does seem that we're at the tail of it,” says Klotz, now a professor of management at University College London’s School of Management.

One explanation for the changing US resignation numbers, he says, is the impact of the current economic instability on the labour market – something workers quitting throughout the pandemic didn’t grapple with.

“Even if you want to quit your job, you look out at the market [now] and think, ‘maybe I shouldn’t’,” he says. “The economy has slowed down, there's layoffs in the headlines, warnings in the headlines that AI is going to take all of our jobs – it all makes people think twice before they quit a job.”

The falling resignation statistics make sense says California-based Julia Pollak, chief economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter. Many of the people who made a big, one-time career decision are now settled in a new role that they’re holding onto. 

From internal summits at ZipRecruiter, and economic data the company has analysed, Pollak says many people shifted from less desirable industries to more sought-after ones – a phenomenon some have described as a ‘Great Reshuffle’. “For example, people who might have been cashiers before, were like, ‘wait a second, I can be a call centre representative from my couch, with my dog at my feet and a TV in the background’. That led to a lot of movement, but it was a one time jump.”

Some people have also stopped quitting, says Klotz, simply because they have less reason to. 

“Work for millions of people has gotten better over the last two years,” he says. “Many jobs are more flexible than they were two years ago, in many jobs pay is much fairer than it was pre-pandemic, and in many cases, benefits have been improved. Companies have taken employee wellbeing more seriously over the last couple of years, and invested much more in making their workplaces more inclusive and diverse.”

Some of these changes can be chalked up to companies trying to stem attrition, says Pollak. And there’s evidence to suggest it’s worked. “We're hearing a lot of anecdotal evidence from companies that turnover is normalising,” she says. “They're just having a much easier time holding on to workers.”

In fact, job satisfaction is now higher than it’s been in nearly four decades, according to survey data from the Conference Board, a non-profit think tank that has tracked job satisfaction since 1987. In a late 2022 survey of nearly 2,000 US workers, more than 60% reported being content with their jobs, and some of the most satisfied are those who quit one job for a better one during the pandemic.

“Broadly speaking, employees are actually happier than ever,” says Klotz. “The economy can't explain that as much as the reality that, because of the last couple of years, employers have had to get better. Now you have people who are saying, I'm not quitting my job because my job is actually pretty good.”

But although the big picture shows the Great Resignation may be winding down in general, some industries are still feeling the sting of mass quitting, especially in certain sectors.  

“Healthcare, manufacturing, construction – resignation rates in those industries are well above 2019 levels,” says Klotz. “When you say the Great Resignation is over, there’s probably going to be people who are leading healthcare or manufacturing organisations who are still really struggling to find workers or with high turnover.” But a worsening economy might start to lower resignation rates in those industries, too: historically, fewer people quit during economic dips.

Both economists say they’re willing to call the Great Resignation officially over, but Klotz cautions that people will continue quitting in high numbers, relative to pre-pandemic years. “I think it’s important to keep in mind that the resignation rate is still at about the level it was in 2019. Pandemic aside, resignations in 2019 were the highest in the 20 years the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been recording it.”

He adds: “I'd say what comes next is just an unsettled labour market.”

-bbc